Read context HERE.
RIC has no future until Beijing comes to terms with and finds a way around the gargantuan economic problem headed its way next decade. China’s debt burden will strain the economy given the old age dependency ratio will sharply rise and consumption growth will weaken in line.
To keep growth ticking along, China will become overwhelmingly dependent on cheap exports manufactured using industrial robots. To maintain that global edge, Beijing will seek all means possible to deny rising peers like India an opportunity to industrialize. This means squeezing supply chains, weaponizing trade, and potentially waging a war assuming subversion fails.
China needs a unipolar Asia for its economic and by extension, political survival. An Indo-China conflict will come to a head if and when Beijing sees its economic fortunes decline at the expense of India’s rise. If India’s impasse in delivering critical reforms required to help it compete in even some sections of the market persists, China will continue to overshadow India for decades. In fact, it will embolden Beijing to widen the gap in CNP by kicking its adversary when it’s on the mat.
Either way, disrupting India’s internal affairs by exploiting its democratic openness is China’s first go-to strategy. This is complemented by the use of proxy enemies on India’s eastern and western flanks to perpetrate terrorism and supply of narcotics. As we know, Beijing generally avoids large scale armed conflict because the political consequences internally should matters go south for them, can be disastrous.
All in all, it suggests that China, out of self-preservation, will continue pursuing an aggressive hybrid war to arrest India’s growth. It puts RIC out of contention as a viable bloc, even if elements in the US raise alarm at the faintest prospect of its cohesiveness.
To keep growth ticking along, China will become overwhelmingly dependent on cheap exports manufactured using industrial robots. To maintain that global edge, Beijing will seek all means possible to deny rising peers like India an opportunity to industrialize. This means squeezing supply chains, weaponizing trade, and potentially waging a war assuming subversion fails.
China needs a unipolar Asia for its economic and by extension, political survival. An Indo-China conflict will come to a head if and when Beijing sees its economic fortunes decline at the expense of India’s rise. If India’s impasse in delivering critical reforms required to help it compete in even some sections of the market persists, China will continue to overshadow India for decades. In fact, it will embolden Beijing to widen the gap in CNP by kicking its adversary when it’s on the mat.
Either way, disrupting India’s internal affairs by exploiting its democratic openness is China’s first go-to strategy. This is complemented by the use of proxy enemies on India’s eastern and western flanks to perpetrate terrorism and supply of narcotics. As we know, Beijing generally avoids large scale armed conflict because the political consequences internally should matters go south for them, can be disastrous.
All in all, it suggests that China, out of self-preservation, will continue pursuing an aggressive hybrid war to arrest India’s growth. It puts RIC out of contention as a viable bloc, even if elements in the US raise alarm at the faintest prospect of its cohesiveness.
Surya Kanegaonkar